The Breeders Cup is up and running and I am very much looking forward to a night in front of the TV with my DRF cards, a can of Budweiser and a cheeseburger. I will not be having too many bets for I do not fancy anything strongly, but I cannot resist having a few quid on goldikova in the Mile. She is looking to win it for a fourth straight year and from stall 1 I fully expect her to oblige again. She likes racing around a bend and seems to love being trained on the track. More importantly she is a class above her opponents  tonight and that includes Strong Suit who some people seem to think is a big danger. I cannot have him at any price from a bad draw over a trip that is a furlong too far for him. I am also very aware that Goldikova has been specifically trained for the race. She may be a short price but even at that she is value to win her fourth mile.

I presenteda flat review of 2011 for Racing Uk yesterday and afterwards it was nice to retire to the local pub for a beer with ny colleagues. Unfortunatley a regular punter recognised that we were from Racing UK and decided to tell us all about his punting woes and how bent he game is. It was the usual kind of stuff that you here in the betiing shop, which is fine I like going into betting shops, but it was incessant. We were happy to listen for the duration of a pint but when he started telling us that dancing Brave was stopped in the Derby something had to be done. We told him we all backed Sharastani at 25/1 in the same race, with which he described us as Jammy so and so’s and went his merry way back to the bar to contemplate the difficulties of riding a hold up horse at Epsom when that horse does not handle the track.

I have a day at home today whilst my wife goes to Wembley to watch the Rugby league International between England and Australia. I am staying at base camp to look after the little one and will hopefully get to see the game on the TV at around 3.00pm. I suspect that Australia will be far too strong for our brave boys. Watch the game if you can, if only to see the mercurial genius of Darren Lockyer, Billy Slater and Greg Inglis, they are world class sportsmen and as you may have guessed all play for Australia.

Right time for me to wave goodbye to the brave supporters heading to the rugby and get a fresh nappy out!

All the best

Todays Selections

3.40 Doncaster – Our Johnathan

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most valuable horse race run in the United States each year and considered by many to be the most prestigious horse race run in the world. Raven’s Pass became the first British winner of the race in 2008, the first time the Classic was run on a synthetic pro-ride surface. In 2009 Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she almost repeated the feat last year. There has been no standout American colt on the dirt this year, which is why another female, Havre De Grace, is considered to have a big chance of being the second female winner of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-44
4yo: 5-9-43
5yo: 3-1-21
6yo+: 0-3-11
Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 53.8% of total runners.
The two 3yo winners both posted a career high RPR in winning a grade/group 1 on their previous start and had finished in first 4 in a British Classic or a Triple Crown race.
No horse aged above 5 has ever won the race and all 3 horses aged 6+ to be placed in this had finished in first 4 the previous year (2 were returning winners, the other had finished 4th & 6th in previous 2 Classics).

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by a stallion that raced in North America (exception was by Candy Stripes, who was bred in Kentucky but raced in France)
8 of 10 winners were sired by a graded winner in America (2 exceptions were by sires who were placed in grade/group 1 company)

Gender
Only 2 female horses have run in the race in the past decade. Azeri finished 5th in 2004 and Zenyatta won the race in 2009 and was a fast finishing 2nd last year.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on all starts that season (the 10 winners collectively had 49 previous starts the year they won this, only once in those 49 runs were they out of the first 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F (exception was the one British-trained winner, who had never run over further than a mile)
8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (2 exceptions won a grade 2)
7 of 10 winners had their last run 20 to 35 days ago (3 exceptions had won the Woodward Stakes or Whitney Handicap last time out)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at that year’s BC track (other 4 were having first start at the BC track)

Other Races
Woodward Stakes (Havre De Grace): 113740 (2-1-6)
Santa Anita Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1370 (1-1-4)
Suburban H’cap winner (Flat Out): 3010 (1-1-4)
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 840021440 (1-1-9)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 0175 (1-0-4)
Travers Stakes winner (Stay Thirsty): 28722464 (0-3-8)
Strub Stakes winner (Twirling Candy): 2 (0-1-1)
Apple Blossom H’cap winner (Havre De Grace): 52 (0-1-2)
Previous Breeders Cup Juvenile winner (Uncle Mo): 44 (0-0-2)
Belmont Stakes winner (Ruler On Ice): 674 (0-0-3)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 898 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Woodward Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 146
2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Gold Cup last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Stephen Foster H’cap, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Clark H’cap, finishing 11

Churchill Downs BC Classics
The Breeders’ Cup has been held at Churchill Downs 7 times, and it can be illuminating to see if they are any trends specific to those 7 runnings.
Woodward Stakes winner (Havre De Grace): 16530 (1-1-5)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 2491 (1-1-4)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 76217 (1-1-5)
Both 3yo winners of the BC Classic at Churchill Downs had finished in the first 2 in the Super Derby.
3 of the 4 winners of the Whitney H’cap to run in the BC Classic at Churchill Downs have won it. The 1988 Whitney H’cap winner, Personal Ensign, was a filly and went on to win the BC Distaff at Churchill Downs that year.

Trainers
Kiaran McLaughlin (1-0-2) is the only trainer with a runner in this year’s race to have won it since 2001.
Nicholas Zito (0-2-6) has gained a couple of places from his 6 runners.
Todd Pletcher (0-1-9) and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-10) have each managed just 1 place since 2001 while Bob Baffert (0-0-4) has seen his 4 runners all finish out of the money.
Record of European-trained runners: 1-3-16 (only winner came on Pro-Ride, record on dirt is 0-1-11)

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 4 in the betting & were priced 8/1 or lower
Favourites (1-3-10) have a very poor record in this recently, having gained only won 1 in the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Sired by a graded winner that raced in North America
• Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that finished 1st or 2nd in the 2011 Super Derby)
• Finished in first 4 in all starts in 2011
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time (ideally won)
• Had last run 20 to 35 days ago (or won Woodward or Whitney last time)
• Previously won a grade/group 1
• Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
• Finished in first 4 in Churchill Downs grade 1 in 2011 (or having 1st run here)
• Won the Woodward, Whitney, Stephen Foster and/or Clark H’cap
• Ran in Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood Stakes and/or JC Gold Cup
• Trained in North America
• From the first 4 in the betting

With Lisowel’s meeting abandoned due to waterlogging I have switched my attentions to today’s flat meetings. Starting with Newbury, Kirthill strikes me as a likeable sort in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at 3.05. Luca Cumani has farmed this race in recent years and looks to have another decent chance of winning it this year with the son of Danehill Dancer. Kirthill is fairly lightly raced having only had six runs to date so I expect there is likely to be further improvement to come from Cumani’s colt. Effectively 1lb well in on the official handicapper and also the beneficiary of a weight allowance I expect Kirthill to go close with the ground and trip ideal for him.

Earlier on the same card the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial takes place. The progressive Green Destiny has had a fantastic season this year and is looking to add another Group 3 prize to his name after bagging the Strensall Stakes at York last month. Despite having to concede weight all round the son of Marju should still find himself in the shakeup. Add the high class Dangerous Midge and the consistent Sri Putra to the race it has the makings of a quality contest. Not a betting race for me but I will certainly be watching with interest.

Selections (1-5*)

N 3.05 – Kirthill *E/W at 7/1 (365)

Sun Disc (advised 5/1) was a welcome winner for the blog yesterday; unfortunately Opinion Poll was unable to make it a double after being run down by Saddler’s Rock in the Doncaster Cup. All eyes will be on the Ladbrokes St Leger this afternoon where Sea Moon will be looking to justify favouritism for Sir Michael Stoute. The son of Beat Hollow was almightily impressive in the Great Voltigeur last time and a repeat of that performance should make him hard to beat. With the trip and ground in his favour I expect he will go very close despite the market drift in the past 24 hours. Of the dangers Blue Bunting has had a cracking season winning the Guineas in May then going on to complete an Irish and Yorkshire Oaks double this summer. She should relish the trip and ought to be thereabouts in receipt of 3lb from the colts. Of the rest I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seville bounce back to form after his lacklustre York performance. No strong fancy for me in this, so I will be watching rather than having a play in the race.

Two horses I was particular interested in today both run at Goodwood. I though Monsieur Chevalier was a fair price in the Starlit Stakes at 2.50. Favoured by the soft ground Richard Hannon’s 4yo is a top class performer on his day as he demonstrated when finish second in the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. Disappointing since then he does need to bounce back to form but does look generously priced at 13/2. The other horse I thought was interesting was Kalk Bay in the 7f handicap at 3.25. A progressive 3yo William Haggas’s son of Hawk Wing has been disappointing this season finishing well beaten on both outings. Interestingly Kalk Bay was prominent in the market for both those runs so connections obviously feel he is capable of winning of his current mark. Adam Beschizza who has a 27% strike rate in the last 12 months for Haggas takes the ride today and tasks off a further 3lb. Despite being weak early this morning in the market I think he is worth a minimum play to bounce back to form.

Selections (1-5*)

G 2.50 – Monsieur Chevalier *E/W at 13/2 (Coral)

G 3.25 – Kalk Bay *E/W at 16/1 (Sportingbet)

Opinion Poll is a strong fancy in the Doncaster Cup this afternoon. The Godolphin runner has developed into a top class stayer this summer having bagged the Lonsdale Cup and Goodwood Cup on his last two outings. A second to Fame And Glory at Ascot in the Gold Cup proves he should handle the extended 2m2f trip with the 5yo looking to improve on last year’s 4^th. Despite having to concede at least 3lb to most of his rivals Opinion Poll has the beating of most of them on his last few runs. Motrice and Saddler’s Rock could prove the most interesting of the opposition in receipt of the most weight but that pair will need a career best to lower the colours of the classy Opinion Poll. Although not much of a price at 7/4 I think he is a strong favourite and the one to beat. Any more rain would also improve his chance of winning.

Over at Down Royal this evening Dessie Hughes has a couple of interesting runners on the flat. Recent hurdle winner Sun Disc looks fairly treated off a mark of 50 in the apprentice handicap at 6.50. In a weak looking race he looks worth a small EW play at 5/1 with improvement likely from his current mark. Hughes’s other runner is Action Master who lines-up in the Ulster Cesarewitch at the end of the card. A smart horse over hurdles (rated 126) the 5yo opened his account over fences at Kilbeggan when last seen out. Now back on the level he is another that looks interesting off his current mark. In a competitive race I will be watching with interest to see how he fares under Declan McDonogh.   

Selections (1-5*)

D 2.25 – Opinion Poll **WIN at 7/4 (BOG)

DR 6.50 – Sun Disc *E/W at 5/1 (Paddy Power)

Zavier can should go close for the inform duo of Mahmood Al Zarooni and Silvestre de Sousa in Beverley’s 2yo maiden stakes at 2.40. The son Sharmadal didn’t set the world alight on his debut at Ascot but shaped with some promise to think he is capable of picking up a maiden. The French bred is sure to appreciate today’s soft conditions as well as the stiff 7½ furlong trip. With Mahmood Al Zarooni firing in the winners left right and centre I would be surprised to see Zavier improve significantly from his debut run. The booking of title chasing Silvestre de Sousa is another positive for his chance. In a race lacking strength in depth Zavier looks worth a play at 4/1 EW if all 8 remaining runners start. Ghalaa is strong favourite having run a cracker over C&D two weeks ago behind an experienced Stoute winner. She’s the one to beat with Ventura Spirit the only other runner to show any worthwhile form.  

Over at Salisbury Top Cop is an interesting debutant for Andrew Balding in the opening 2yo maiden. The Jim Smith owned colt is a half brother to Desert Law out of the mare Speed Cop who was a useful for sprinter for the owner a few years ago. No doubt connections will be hoping Top Cop can display some ability on his debut. Interestingly he has been well supported in the market this morning.

Selections (1-5*)

B 2.40 – Zavier *E/W at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, run at Ascot on the 23rd July, is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, it was historically a good acid test for Derby winners and it is good to see this year’s Derby winner, Workforce, entered to run. He will be the first Derby winner since 2003 to run in this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-2-14
4yo: 8-6-41
5yo: 0-7-25
6yo+: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby earlier that season.

Gender
All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was Time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions won the Hardwicke by over 3 lengths on previous start)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
That season
Prince Of Wales’ Stakes winner (Rewilding): 25711 (2-1-5)
Highest placed Derby finisher: 1355 (1-1-4)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 81 (1-0-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding): 2203 (0-2-4)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 76953 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Arc winner (Workforce): 31 (1-1-2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 27 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 5-1-17
British-trained runners: 4-14-62
French-trained runners: 1-2-8
Other: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-12) & Michael Stoute (3-4-14) have both trained the winner 3 times in past 10 years, and the last 4 winners were trained by one or the other.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-4-14) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 5 of his 14 runners make the frame.

Price
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.48 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
• Run in last 50 days
• Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke last time out)
• Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at trip)
• Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
• Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time
• Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2010
• Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
• Priced shorter than 7/1

Ffos Las’s seven race card made the most appeal amongst the five meetings taking place today. The Queen’s Starlight Walk is sure to be hard to beat in the opening fillies maiden. The royal runner has filled the places in each start this season and sets the standard returning to maiden company. This could prove a penalty kick for the favourite who faces moderate opposition today. Fairy Rose may be the exception to that having on had one run to date in a hot maiden at Newbury in June. Amanda Perrett’s 3yo shaped well for a long way that day despite showing signs of inexperience and looks open to improvement over this longer trip. With improvement likely she could be capable of giving Starlight Walk a race of it.

The 6f maiden stakes at 3.20 is likely to see another favourite start a very short price. Dreams Of Dawn is the likely jolly and he should be winning this unless Brian Meehan’s newcomer is any good. Mick Channon’s colt shaped very promisingly when finishing a close up forth on his debut at Newbury. The form of that race has worked out well with numerous winners coming out of the race. As already mentioned this looks an excellent opportunity for him to get off the mark and he should do unless Miss Elegance is any good. Meehan mentioned on his website the filly may need the experience today and this has been reflected by her weakness in the market. With Dreams Of Dawn likely to start at odds of around 1/5 there may be some each-way value amongst the other runners. Zee Zee Dan was the one which made most appeal to me at 20/1. Noel Quinlan’s 3yo didn’t look total avoid of ability when finishing a close up sixth in a Doncaster maiden ten days ago. The son of Danroad did not get the clearest of runs that day and was not subject to a hard race in the closing stages. Having only had two runs to date he could be open to further improvement dropping further down in trip.

Selections (1-5*)

F 2.20 – Fairy Pose *E/W at 9/2 (BOG)

F 3.20 – Zee Zee Dan *E/W at 20/1 (BOG)

The Northumberland Plate takes place at Newcastle on Satuday 25th June. Trends for the past 10 years seem to point to lower weights with proven stamina that like to race prominently:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-65
5yo: 0-5-44
6yo: 4-7-39
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-112
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-75
Older horses have held the edge recent with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 7.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-126
9 of 10 winners (last carried 8-11 or less
Horses carrying a penalty: 82840300805 (0-3-11)
Top weight: 00000000030 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-14-70
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-98
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-19
The last 8 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 6F+
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3 or 4
7 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Overturn): 708 (0-0-3)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 4 (0-1-1)
Tentofollow Handicap winner (Montaff): 30 (0-1-2)
Ascot Stakes winner (Swingkeel): 288 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Overturn): 98300 (0-1-5)
Eddie Stobart Stakes winner (Yorgunnabelucky): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing

Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) and Paul Cole (1-2-6) have both gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-7), Donald McCain (1-0-1), Mick Channon (1-0-1) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race since 2001.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) and Richard Fahey (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple places in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-6) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-6-47
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-54
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 1-7-60
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-8-36
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-5-37

Racing Style
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7
The last 2 winners both made all to win, the 3 winners who were held up did so on soft ground.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6+
• Carrying 8-11 or less
• Officially rated 85 to 93
• Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
• Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
• Ran in last 55 days
• Ran 2 to 6 times in 2011
• Won over 1M 6F+
• Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
• Trained by George Moore, Paul Cole or Alan Swinbank
• Tends to race prominently
• Priced 12/1 or higher

The two good things were beaten yesterday at the Royal Meeting leaving a lingering smell of burnt fingers all over Berkshire and many parts of Australia as well. So you think was thought to be a certainty in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes by many but circumstances mitigated against him. His pacemaker missed the break and then hampered him which caused him to pick up the bridle and race far too keenly. That exuberance came back to bite him in the closing stages as he was collared by Rewilding in the dying strides. Under the circumstancs So you Think shaped like a very good horse and is 2/1 to prove it in the Eclipse. Rewilding was given a superb ride by Frankie Dettori in a race that was run to suit him. There was a sting in the tail for Dettori as he picked up a whip ban for hitting Rewilding 24 times in the final two furlongs. As far as I am concerned Dettori broke the rules and was rightly punished with a 9 day ban. Some want the rules changed so that rides such as Dettori gave Rewilding will be punished with disqualification. I am not in favour of this and believe that the rules are perfectly adequate as they stand. The sanction of disqualification would have meant that Rewilding would not have won yesterday which means the best horse in the race on the day would not have won and to create such a scenario is to tinker with the sport too much.

Shumoos as the other good thing that was turned over and those that snaffled 8/1 about her to win the Queen Mary after her win at Haydock must be gutted. She was only narrowly denied and lost nothing in defeat, but losing nothing in defeat does not pay the bills. Talking of which I know that I am having a bad run here on the blog with my selections and I apologise for such an inept performance over the last two weeks. To say I am not in the groove would be an understatement and all I can do is keep swinging and hope that I connect soon.

I have been busy working for Racing Uk ove rthe last few days and have the chance to put my feet up now until next week whence I will return fresh to the fray.

All the best for today everybody.

Todays Selections

5.35 Ascot – Halifax (each way)