The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 16th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. Paul Nicholls who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals and Kauto Star will be looking to win the race for a third time but will have last year’s winner, Long Run, to contend with.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 4-2-21
8yo: 2-6-45
9yo: 3-6-33
10yo: 0-3-30
11yo: 0-3-13
12yo+: 0-0-5
Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-13-88
French Bred: 3-6-42
British Bred: 0-1-17
German Bred: 0-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented almost 87% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kuato Star winning it a second time was exception)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)
5 of 5 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Returning Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 01122FP (2-2-7)
RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 1P195 (2-0-5)
Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 1 (1-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
9 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).
9 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother was only exception)

Other races
King George winner (Kauto Star): 011121F1 (5-1-7)
Lexus Chase winner (Synchronised): 9F100137 (2-1-8)
AON Chase winner: 04118 (2-0-5)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 9P013 (1-1-5)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): 012PFP (1-1-6)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 576182 (1-1-6)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Medermit): 16 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 1P (1-0-2)
Old Roan Chase winner (Albertas Run): 10 (1-0-2)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 828 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Ryman Novice Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 290 (0-1-3)
Previous season Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Drinmore Chase winner (Jessies Dream): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F3F5 (0-1-4)
Cotswold Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 55268 (0-1-5)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 0P (0-0-2)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 5P (0-0-2)
Previous Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 60P (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): F050 (0-0-4)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner (): 0F4004P (0-0-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2111151
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121
10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (9 of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-7-27) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2002.
Mouse Morris (1-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-6) are the only other trainers with entrants to have saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) has trained 2 placed finishers from 6 runners since 2002.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-13) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 17 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (2-5-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 5 years (they were not represented in 2009).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2.
Favourites (6-2-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.85.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Irish or French bred
• Had 6 to 11 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)
• Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)
• Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+
• Won over 3M+
• Won a grade 1 chase (and won a grade 1 or 2 chase this season)
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2011 Festival
• Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
• From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
• Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)

We had an enjoyable weekend with friends and family and the victory of St Helens at the London Broncos was the icing on the cake. The Saints won 34-24 in a free flowing fast game (take note you Rugby Union fans) and they look like they will be a side challenging for honours later this season. Whilst the game was enjoyable the conditions were not and it would be fair to say that we were absolutely frozen by the end of the game. A curry and a few pints later that evening soon warmed us up though and we are already planning our neXt trip to see the  Saints, next time hopefully in their brand new home ground.

Hopefully the cold weather will relent soon and we can get back to somehting like normaility as far as racing is concerned. I suspect that there will be more disruption over the next few days although it will be a busy enough week for me with an evening covering the action at Kempton on Wednesday and an afternoon dealing with Meydan on Thursday. Jumping action will be thin on the ground but at least Ayr will keep the Racing Uk team busy today, and National Hunt fans do not have long to wait before the Cheltenham Festival graces our screens.

With the current weather conditions not much has been going on as far as racing on these shores is concerned, but you could not fail to be impressed with Sizing Europe yesterday. In essence he destroyed BiB Zeb on ground that would have been slow enough for him and he will be very hard to beat in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. To be honest there is a paucity of opposition this year and with Sizing looking as good if not better than last year surely only some poor jumping can deny him a second Queen Mother Champion Chase. He is best priced with Ladbrokes at 6/4 which seems fair enough.

Time for me to get the trainers on and try to work off the considerable excess of the weekend. Enjoy the action from Ayr today

All the best

Todays Selections

3.25 Wolverhampton – Unlimited (each way 9/2 various firms)

During the kempton show last night Dave Nevison and myself expressed an opinion or two on the Triumph hurdle. We both agreed that Grumeti may just not be quite good enough to win the race, but may be able to run into a place. This opinion garnered a good deal of comment on Twitter some of it constructive and some of it less than complimentary. I do not get involved in in the world of twitter, but Dave alerted me to what was going on and it lead my to think about the whole issue and it made me wonder why many people in Horseracing get so worked up about other people’s opinions.

It would seem that when people become connected to a horse they become over protective and over sensitive to the opinions of others which is bizarre because in life listening to the opinions of others is one of the best ways to learn and develop your own mind. I can understand people getting upset if their horse is slagged off unfairly by someone but to rear up when others simply express an opinion is madness isn’t it? Either that or they have an awful lot of tiume on their hands.

Anyway for the record Grumeti is a lovely and talented racehorse who has been well bought off the flat to go jumping. He is sure to run a fine race in the Triumph Hurdle but I do not think he will win, this is just an opinion of course and is not meant to upset anybody. If he wins, and he might, I will be the first to admit that I got it wrong. You cannot say fairer than that.

Racing looks set to be blighte by the weather for a few days yet and it may be the case that Meydan wil be flying the flag for our coverage on Friday with Catterick set to inspect today for that meeting. The Meydan card though is a cracking one and I am looking forward to presenting it with James Willoughby as my guest. The action from Dubai this season has been the best we have ever seen at Meydan and I would urge you to tune in from 11.00am tomorrow.

All the best for today folks.

Todays Selections

1.30 Southwell – No mean trick

Ted Spread was a well backed winner for us here on the blog yesterday to end the month ona high. He was an 11/4 shot in the morning, but was backed into 5/4 and obliged comfortably by seven lengths. He formed part of a Paul Nicholls treble. Dildar was the first leg of that treble and opinion seems divided as to whether he will be a force in the Triumph hurdle. For what it is worth I thought he was quite impressive given that he did not jump very well. Essentially he landed flat footed over seven of the eight hurdles and it is testament to his raw ability that he managed to prevail. He will be much sharper next time. Paddy Power make him a 14/1 shot which is a good price with many other firms remaining catious at 10/1. There will be many looking to oppose this horse, but I am certainly not one of them and will be backing him each way at 14/1.

I am heading to the studio later today to cover all of the action from Kempton Park with Dave Nevison as my guest. We will be flying the flag for Racing UK today as this afternoons meeting at Ludlow has fallen foul of the current cold snap. Please do get in touch with myself and Dave during the show, the mail address is studio@racinguk.com. We would be interested in your thoughts on the Supreme Novices hurdle and the Triumph hurdle at the Festival as we will be discussing those races during the show. We would also like some winners as well for the Kempton card which looks as trappy as ever. We look forward to hearing from you.

It is an exciting week at McNae towers with the 2012 Rugby League season due to start on Friday, indeed we will be making our way to the Twickenham Stoop on Saturday to watch the mighty St Helens take on Harlequins. The necessary shirts have been bought and our best mates are driving south to join us for what should be an enjoyable weekend. Of course for it to be an exceptional one we need Saints to win and with a few new signings and a good pre season behind them there is no reason why they cannot do the business.

Do join us for all the action from Kempton later today.

All the best

Todays Selections

5.20 Kempton – The Mongoose (3/1 Skybet)

Antepost – Triumph Hurdle – Dildar (each way 14/1 Paddy Power)

It is Cheltenham trials day and amongst many excitement is at fever pitch. It is hard to imagine that there will be enough energy left in the tank for the Festival itself. It does give many the chance to give the new tweed suit an outing and to see if the blue floral tie on a lilac check shirt partially hidden by a pink jumper on top of custard coloured cords, red socks and brown brogues really does work. This is what trials day is for, after all if it does not quite cut the mustard the colour of the jumper could always be changed.

On a serious note trials day is what it says it is and accordingly there are clues aplenty for the Festival in March. My maxim with Festival punting is that the most crucial factor is previous Festival form, if that is not something a horse can boast at least they can get a taste of the Cheltenham atmosphere today. The action is all live on Racing UK and it should be a very enjoyable afternoon. For most seeing Big Bucks back in action will be the highlight, for me the opening race which is a JCB triumph hurdle trial is a cracker with Baby Mix taking on Grumeti. There are other competitors of course but these are the principal players. Both were impressive in winning first time over hurdles and Grumeti would have won last time but for tipping up at Newbury. Some people believe that Baby Mix did not beat much when he won last time. I never mind what horses beat as long as the time is good and the time that Baby Mix put up was a good one and it was at Cheltenham, for me this gives him the edge on Grumeti, but it should be a cracking start to the meeting.

Our build up to this superb day begins at 11.00am with Mark Your Card, be sure to tune in then.

I must apologise for not posting a blog yesterday. We had a bit of sickness in the camp, but all iis well again now thankfully. It was probably a break that I needed becasue my tipping in the last few weeks has been shocking and perhaps a day off will have done me the world of good, time will tell no doubt.

I hope you have a lovely weekend and whatever you are wearing enjoy trials day, but save a little bit of petrol for the big event.

All the best

Todays Selections

2.50 Doncaster – Wayward Prince (each way 9/1 William Hill)

Shame on you Ascot

Many thanks to those of you who replied to my blog yesterday. Clearly this dress code business at Ascot has energised many of you and I am pretty sure you will be able to second guess my opinions on the whole sorry affair.

Ascot have lost the plot completely with this totally absurd orange badge of shame idea. I know that they have admitted that it was a mistake and have refunded every premier enclosure customer that attended the meeting on Saturday Saturday, but nonetheless they have displayed an arrogance that does not belong in this day and age.

For many years now Ascot has been associated with top class racing along with rude stewards who are trying to impliment rules that are born out of little more than pure snobbery. Hopefully the powers that be realise that they have gone too far this time and that as a consequence this represents a turning of the tide and a trip into the 21st century. We can only live in hope!

I do think that  racecourses are entitled to ask for specific dress codes, but to try and shame those who have not complied is beyond belief. We always attend a day at Royal Ascot on the heath with a picnic and I am pleased to say that they have not yet banned shorts and t-shirts, they day that they do will be the day we stop attending.

There is plenty of momentum behind the Cheltenham Festival now and the trials day this weekend will crank the hype to hitherto unknown heights. Of course we will be covering the Festival and I will be working on all four days which I always enjoy but I tend not to get fired up for the whole thing too soon. After all to kick on to soon where Cheltenham is concerned is fatal, Ruby Walsh knows that although many of his colleagues, even some high profile ones have not worked it out yet.

Right I need to head off now as today is my day to look after the little one and we always go swimming in the morning before having a somewhat more relaxing afternoon.

Have a lovely day

Todays Selections

3.50 Southwell – Moataz

Balding Banker is my main fancy on the day of Cheltenham’s December meeting. Paul Nicholls’s novice made a pleasing debut behind Molotov at Wincanton last month. The son of Accordian impressed with his jumping and the way he travelled that day before being outpaced by Nicky Henderson’s horse in the closing stages. Cheltenham’s stiffer track should play to his strengths and in receipt of 7lb from Darlan he should be capable of making a race of it with the jolly. On bumper form there is little to split the pair though it is fair to say we haven’t seen the best of Darlan yet with the 4yo not tested in his two outings to date. But looking at the market Balding Banker stands out for me and he rates a strong EW bet with Ruby Walsh taking over in the saddle.

On the same card the novices chase looks a good race despite only a field of four. Solix made a winning debut at Ascot but that was with some jumping errors along the way. His entitled to improve for that effort but for me he faces a hard to task giving weight to Sam Winner. Nicholls’s 4yo was the best of these over hurdles and now stepping up in trip and getting a useful weight allowance he should prove hard to beat. He had jumped slightly out to his left at Exeter before departing at the last so returning to Cheltenham (2/3 here) will help that tendency if he jumps like that this afternoon. The other two look slightly outclassed and have it all to do to trouble Sam Winner.

At Doncaster all eyes will be on Sprinter Sacre in the novices chase. Third in the Supreme last season and considered an existing prospect by connections I hope all goes to plan here before he tackles some of the big guns in what looks a strong division this season.   

Selections (1-5*)

C 3.30 – Balding Banker **E/W at 6/1 (Pads, Tote & Fred)

C 12.00 – Sam Winner *WIN at 11/8 (General)

Weston Lodge (advised 11/4) was a winning NAP for the blog yesterday just doing enough to land a gamble in Wetherby’s concluding novices hurdle. On to today, Cheltenham’s third and final day of the Open meeting is the pick of the day’s meetings. The card kicks off a good quality Grade 2 novices chase where Supreme Novices Al Ferof makes his chasing debut.

A race I am particularly looking forward to is the 2m5f Neptune Investment Management hurdle at 3.30. Impressive Persian War winner Fingal Bay bids to keep his unbeaten record intact as he takes on 9 rivals in the Grade 2 contest. Philip Hobbs’s novice impressed me with his fluent hurdling when running out an easy winner on his debut at Chepstow. He has to potential to reach the top in this division and certainly warrants respect in this afternoon’s race. But at the current prices he doesn’t make too much appeal as a betting proposition. Another easy Chepstow winner African Broadway was priced up 6/1 on the first show yesterday evening but that price quickly went. David Pipe’s shock Newbury winner made the perfect transition to hurdles when running out a very easy winner of a Chepstow novice hurdle last month. The 5yo looks a future chaser but should be able to develop into a smart hurdler beforehand. With plenty of unexposed horses it the race it should prove to be an informative contest. 

Any from Cheltenham Big Zeb makes his seasonal reappearance at Navan minus Barry Geraghty (could be significant he takes the ride on A Media Luz in the Greatwood instead). The 10yo has plenty in hand on official figures and should have too much for Noble Prince despite his trainer’s concerns regards the going. Today’s NAP is Oscars Business who makes her debut in the bumper at Limerick. Trained by the inform Robert Tyner the 7yo has some useful point form to her name and a repeat of that should be more than good enough to take this weak looking contest.   

Selections (1-5*)

L 4.05 – Oscars Business ***WIN at 3/1+

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the feature on Cheltenham’s top quality card this afternoon with 20 hopefuls lining up in the Grade 3 handicap. In a competitive race I have no strong fancy though would plump for Wishfull Thinking if forced to give a selection. Philip Hobbs’s horse progressed into a top novice last season finishing runner up in the Jewson at Cheltenham before going on to win a competitive looking handicap at the Punchestown festival. If the 8yo is going to be competitive in graded events this season he ought to be able to go close in a handicap off a mark of 164.

On the same card I fancy Restless Harry to make a winning chasing debut in the novices chase at 4.10. Robin Dickin’s stable star has proved a consistent staying hurdler over the past few seasons performing well in some of the top staying races. The 7yo looks sure to be at least effective over fences given he was a point winner early in his career. Another positive is he has a liking for Cheltenham where he has won 2 from 6 and been including a Grade 2 victory. With 12lb in hand on official hurdle ratings he should be able to make winning debut granted a clear round of jumping. Of the opposition Saint Are looks Restless Harry’s main rival having won a Grade 1 over hurdles last season and finished a good 2^nd behind Champion Court on his chasing debut last month. Tim Vaughan’s 5yo is likely to have benefited from that experience and should make a race of it with the selection now stepped up to 3m.

Away from Cheltenham I like the chances of Weston Lodge in the concluding novices hurdle at Wetherby. Tom George’s point winner made a promising debut at Carlisle last month only finding Cape Dutch (runs Cheltenham 3.40) too strong. Granted slower conditions today he could be hard to peg back granted a similar front running ride.

Selections (1-5*)

C 4.10 – Restless Harry *WIN at 7/4 (General)

W4.00 – Weston Lodge *WIN at 11/4 (General)

Arab League (advised 5/1) was an easy winner for the blog yesterday at Taunton. David Pipe’s runner scored comfortably in the end after being given an attacking front running ride from Tom Scudamore. On to today’s action Cheltenham stage an excellent quality card this afternoon though finding winners doesn’t look easy. I’m particularly looking forward to the novices chase at the end of the card with top staying hurdler Grand Crus making his chase debut. The 6yo progressed rapidly last season ending the campaign finishing runner up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle. Connections have wasted little time sending the son of Dom Alco over the bigger obstacles and they look to have a very exciting chase prospect on their hands. Today’s trip may be short of idea but I expect him to make a winning debut in receipt of weight from Cue Card and Champion Court.

Earlier on the same card Crack Away Jack appears to have an excellent chance on his old form in the 2m handicap chase at 1.45. The former Fred Winter winner lost his way towards the end of his career with Emma Lavelle and now makes his debut for the powerful Nicholls yard. Running off a mark of 142 the 7yo looks well treated on some of his best form. Fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle the son of Gold Away earned an official hurdle rating of 163 before being switched to fences. Considered to be top class by his former trainer Crack Away Jack was highly tried in his first few chases before losing his form after a two year break for Lavelle. Reported to have settled in well to his new stable after a wind operation it is hoped the champion trainer has back to his best this afternoon.  

Selections (1-5*)

C 1.45 – Crack Away Jack *E/W at 4/1 (General)

C 4.05 – Grand Crus *WIN at 5/2 (Boyles)