The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 16th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. Paul Nicholls who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals and Kauto Star will be looking to win the race for a third time but will have last year’s winner, Long Run, to contend with.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 4-2-21
8yo: 2-6-45
9yo: 3-6-33
10yo: 0-3-30
11yo: 0-3-13
12yo+: 0-0-5
Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.

Breeding
Irish Bred: 7-13-88
French Bred: 3-6-42
British Bred: 0-1-17
German Bred: 0-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1
Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented almost 87% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kuato Star winning it a second time was exception)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)
5 of 5 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Returning Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 01122FP (2-2-7)
RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 1P195 (2-0-5)
Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 1 (1-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
9 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).
9 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother was only exception)

Other races
King George winner (Kauto Star): 011121F1 (5-1-7)
Lexus Chase winner (Synchronised): 9F100137 (2-1-8)
AON Chase winner: 04118 (2-0-5)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 9P013 (1-1-5)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): 012PFP (1-1-6)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 576182 (1-1-6)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Medermit): 16 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 1P (1-0-2)
Old Roan Chase winner (Albertas Run): 10 (1-0-2)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 828 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Ryman Novice Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 290 (0-1-3)
Previous season Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Drinmore Chase winner (Jessies Dream): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F3F5 (0-1-4)
Cotswold Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 55268 (0-1-5)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 0P (0-0-2)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 5P (0-0-2)
Previous Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 60P (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): F050 (0-0-4)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner (): 0F4004P (0-0-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2111151
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121
10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (9 of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-7-27) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2002.
Mouse Morris (1-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-6) are the only other trainers with entrants to have saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) has trained 2 placed finishers from 6 runners since 2002.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-13) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 17 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (2-5-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 5 years (they were not represented in 2009).

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2.
Favourites (6-2-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.85.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Irish or French bred
• Had 6 to 11 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)
• Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)
• Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+
• Won over 3M+
• Won a grade 1 chase (and won a grade 1 or 2 chase this season)
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2011 Festival
• Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
• From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
• Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)

The Hennessy Gold Cup takes place at Newbury on Saturday 26th November. Run over 3M 2½F, it’s a grade 3 handicap chase which usually attracts a high class field of staying chasers. In 2002 Be My Royal won the race was disqualified weeks later due to a banned substance, from a trends point of view we will count Be My Royal as the winner in 2002.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-3
6yo: 3-10-27
7yo: 5-7-57
8yo: 1-4-34
9yo: 1-3-37
10yo: 0-3-16
11yo+: 0-0-5
6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-84) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-10-95).
Diamond Edge in 1981 is the only horse aged over 9 to have won the race in the last 40 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 6-7-47
Horses carrying less than 11-0: 4-20-132
Higher weights hold the call in this with 5 of the last 6 winners all carrying 11-4 or more, one exception was last year when Denman was the only runner in the 18-strong field to carry over 11-0.
Top Weight: 90F91P1313 (3-2-10) has gained 3 wins and 2 places in last 5 years, though Denman has twice carried top weight to victory, which slightly skews the top weight statistic.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 159 to 174: 2-1-11
Horses rated 142 to 158: 6-17-96
Horses rated 126 to 141: 2-9-73
The 2 wins & 1 place from horses rated 159+ were all achieved by Denman.
5 of the last 6 winners were officially rated 150 or higher.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ (exception was placed in previous year’s Hennessy)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their chase starts
7 of 10 winners were second season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher over fences
8 of 10 winners had won a graded/listed chase

Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Diamond Harry): 3 (0-1-1)
Bet totepool Novice Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): P7P11 (2-0-5)
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Great Endeavour): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Worcester Nov Chase winner (Aiteen Thirtythree): 35 (0-1-2)
Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 68 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Chase winner (Quinz): 6P (0-0-2)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 807 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase last time, finishing 11P
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season’s Feltham, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in the Bet Totepool Novice Chase, finishing 11
Diamond Harry may try to repeat last year’s win, the only previous horse to win back to back runnings was Arkle.

Running Style
8 of 10 winners (last 6) raced with the leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-6-22) has won the race 3 times in the past 8 years, including twice with Denman (07 & 09) and may have won it a fourth time but for Big Buck’s unseating 2 out.
Nicky Henderson (1-3-10) saddled the winner in 2005 and has had a placed finisher in 3 of the last 5 renewals.
Willie Mullins (1-1-5), David Pipe (1-1-7) and Philip Hobbs (1-1-11) have each gained a winner and a place from their runners in past 10 years.

Price
7 of last 8 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter
No massive trend on the prices though the first 3 in the betting have been responsible for 6 of the last 8 winners.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 renewals in the past 10 years and show a level stakes profit of 0.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 or 7
• Carrying 11-0+
• Officially rated 150 to 158
• Run in 3 to 6 chase (winning at least half)
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M 1F+
• Won a listed or graded chase
• Finished in the first 2 last time out
• Run in 3 or fewer handicap chases
• Tends to race prominently
• Second season chaser that ran in RSA and/or Feltham Chase
• Trained by P Nicholls, D Pipe, N Henderson or W Mullins
• Price 10/1 or shorter

The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 12th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 11th to 13th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander in recent years. Last season Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-11
6yo: 3-4-27
7yo: 4-8-42
8yo: 2-5-40
9yo: 1-5-20
10yo+: 0-0-19
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented 64% of the total runners.
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-66
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-16-93
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 94504FPP65 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 6-11-55
Horses rated 136 to 145: 4-7-73
Horses rated 135 or less: 0-8-31
6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 34.6% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 5 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were second season chasers (3 more experienced chasers had all won at grade 2 level)
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Cheltenham or Carlisle

Other Races
Zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Billie Magern): 1F43F28 (1-3-7)
Previous year’s December Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 125 (1-1-3)
Centenary Novice H’cap Chase winner (Divers): 1F (1-0-2)
Betfred The Bonus King H’cap Chase winner (Hector’s Choice): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 84 (0-1-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 2P (0-1-2)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 9 (0-0-1)
Murphy Group H’cap Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 470 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Holmwood Legend): 477PP6 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase at previous year’s meeting, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Jewson Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s December Gold Cup, finishing 1F
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival

Trainers
The Pipe stable (4-2-20) have accounted for 4 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 4 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-8) has only had one placed finisher from 8 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) has been the trainer to follow in recent years, saddling the winner in 08 & 10 and filling one of the places in 07 & 09.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-12), Ferdy Murphy (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the last 10 years.
Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) trained Tranquil Sea to win in 2009.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-7), Paul Nicholls (0-4-17) and Alan King (0-3-7) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2001
Irish based trainers (1-1-16) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.

Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2001 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 9.25.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-13+
• Officially rated 146 or higher
• Having first or second run of the season
• Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
• Previously run less than 10 times over fences
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in no more than 2)
• Second season chaser
• Trained in Great Britain
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
• Favourite does well

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most valuable horse race run in the United States each year and considered by many to be the most prestigious horse race run in the world. Raven’s Pass became the first British winner of the race in 2008, the first time the Classic was run on a synthetic pro-ride surface. In 2009 Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she almost repeated the feat last year. There has been no standout American colt on the dirt this year, which is why another female, Havre De Grace, is considered to have a big chance of being the second female winner of the race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-44
4yo: 5-9-43
5yo: 3-1-21
6yo+: 0-3-11
Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 53.8% of total runners.
The two 3yo winners both posted a career high RPR in winning a grade/group 1 on their previous start and had finished in first 4 in a British Classic or a Triple Crown race.
No horse aged above 5 has ever won the race and all 3 horses aged 6+ to be placed in this had finished in first 4 the previous year (2 were returning winners, the other had finished 4th & 6th in previous 2 Classics).

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by a stallion that raced in North America (exception was by Candy Stripes, who was bred in Kentucky but raced in France)
8 of 10 winners were sired by a graded winner in America (2 exceptions were by sires who were placed in grade/group 1 company)

Gender
Only 2 female horses have run in the race in the past decade. Azeri finished 5th in 2004 and Zenyatta won the race in 2009 and was a fast finishing 2nd last year.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on all starts that season (the 10 winners collectively had 49 previous starts the year they won this, only once in those 49 runs were they out of the first 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F (exception was the one British-trained winner, who had never run over further than a mile)
8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (2 exceptions won a grade 2)
7 of 10 winners had their last run 20 to 35 days ago (3 exceptions had won the Woodward Stakes or Whitney Handicap last time out)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at that year’s BC track (other 4 were having first start at the BC track)

Other Races
Woodward Stakes (Havre De Grace): 113740 (2-1-6)
Santa Anita Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1370 (1-1-4)
Suburban H’cap winner (Flat Out): 3010 (1-1-4)
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 840021440 (1-1-9)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 0175 (1-0-4)
Travers Stakes winner (Stay Thirsty): 28722464 (0-3-8)
Strub Stakes winner (Twirling Candy): 2 (0-1-1)
Apple Blossom H’cap winner (Havre De Grace): 52 (0-1-2)
Previous Breeders Cup Juvenile winner (Uncle Mo): 44 (0-0-2)
Belmont Stakes winner (Ruler On Ice): 674 (0-0-3)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 898 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Woodward Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 146
2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Gold Cup last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Stephen Foster H’cap, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Clark H’cap, finishing 11

Churchill Downs BC Classics
The Breeders’ Cup has been held at Churchill Downs 7 times, and it can be illuminating to see if they are any trends specific to those 7 runnings.
Woodward Stakes winner (Havre De Grace): 16530 (1-1-5)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 2491 (1-1-4)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 76217 (1-1-5)
Both 3yo winners of the BC Classic at Churchill Downs had finished in the first 2 in the Super Derby.
3 of the 4 winners of the Whitney H’cap to run in the BC Classic at Churchill Downs have won it. The 1988 Whitney H’cap winner, Personal Ensign, was a filly and went on to win the BC Distaff at Churchill Downs that year.

Trainers
Kiaran McLaughlin (1-0-2) is the only trainer with a runner in this year’s race to have won it since 2001.
Nicholas Zito (0-2-6) has gained a couple of places from his 6 runners.
Todd Pletcher (0-1-9) and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-10) have each managed just 1 place since 2001 while Bob Baffert (0-0-4) has seen his 4 runners all finish out of the money.
Record of European-trained runners: 1-3-16 (only winner came on Pro-Ride, record on dirt is 0-1-11)

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 4 in the betting & were priced 8/1 or lower
Favourites (1-3-10) have a very poor record in this recently, having gained only won 1 in the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Sired by a graded winner that raced in North America
• Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that finished 1st or 2nd in the 2011 Super Derby)
• Finished in first 4 in all starts in 2011
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time (ideally won)
• Had last run 20 to 35 days ago (or won Woodward or Whitney last time)
• Previously won a grade/group 1
• Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
• Finished in first 4 in Churchill Downs grade 1 in 2011 (or having 1st run here)
• Won the Woodward, Whitney, Stephen Foster and/or Clark H’cap
• Ran in Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood Stakes and/or JC Gold Cup
• Trained in North America
• From the first 4 in the betting

The Betfred Sprint Cup takes place at Haydock on Saturday 3rd September. It’s a six-furlong group 1 open to horses aged 3 and above. The winners of the two 6F group 1’s in Britain this season, Dream Ahead and Society Rock, could lock horns in this.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 3-4-34
4yo: 2-9-42
5yo: 3-3-28
6yo+: 2-4-34
No strong trends here with the ages of the winners being fairly evenly spread out.

Gender
Fillies/mares (2-4-18) have done well in this group 1, gaining 2 wins and filling 20% of the places from just 13% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners (last 7) achieved their highest RPR in last 3 runs
9 of 10 winners had won a listed race or higher (exception 2nd in a group 1)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception won Nunthorpe last time)

Other Races
Hackwood Stakes winner (Deacon Blues): 10336 (1-2-5)
Temple Stakes winner (Sole Power): 3104 (1-1-4)
Duke Of York Stakes winner (Delegator): 717500020 (1-1-9)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Hitchens): 01 (1-0-2)
Middle Park winner (Dream Ahead): 9239 (0-2-4)
July Cup winner (Dream Ahead): 620526 (0-2-6)
Skybet Dash winner (Hoof It): 2 (0-1-1)
Wokingham winner (Deacon Blues): 53 (0-1-2)
Chipchase Stakes winner (Genki): 8430 (0-1-4)
Golden Jubilee winner (Society Rock): 8205 (0-1-4)
Bengough Stakes winner (Bewitched): 09 (0-0-2)
King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 68 (0-0-2)
Leisure Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 800 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 3518
3 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe last time, finishing 214
3 of 10 winners ran in the King’s Stand, finishing 702
3 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 649
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hackwood Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice De Gheest last time, finishing 22

Trainers
Roger Charlton (1-1-6) and Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-7) have each trained the winner and a placed finisher in the past 10 years.
William Haggas (0-1-1), Richard Fahey (0-1-3) and Kevin Ryan (0-1-6) are the only other trainers with entries to have saddled a placed finisher since 2001.
Irish-trained horses (0-0-9) have not fared well in this, with all 9 of their representatives finishing unplaced (8 were trained by Aidan O’Brien).

Draw (excluding 2008 running at Doncaster)
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-8-45
Horses drawn in middle: 1-5-34
Horses drawn top 5 stalls: 6-5-45
6 of 9 winners (last 2) at Haydock were drawn in top 5 stalls.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 9/1 and 25/1
There have been plenty of double-figure priced winners, including the last 2.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Fillies & mares do well
• Run at least twice in 2011
• Finished first or 2nd last time out
• Achieved highest RPR in last 3 starts
• Won a listed race or higher
• Finished in first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 runs
• Won over 6F or 7F
• Ran in a group 1 sprint at Royal Ascot
• Ran in the Temple and/or Hackwood Stakes this season
• Finished in first 4 in Nunthorpe or Maurice Du Gheest last time
• Drawn in top 5 stalls
• Trained in Britain

The Betfred Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day Ebor festival which starts on Wednesday 17th August. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (2000-2010):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-14
4yo: 2-12-84
5yo: 5-8-61
6yo+: 1-3-45
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 45 runners in the past 10 runnings.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-18-116
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-12-88
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high RPR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-38
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-19-129
Horses rated 91 or less: 3-3-37
7 of last 10 winners have all been officially rated between 92 and 102.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in class 2 or better on last flat start (2 exceptions won class 3)
10 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of last 12 months in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners won a race that season (exception only ran in listed or group races)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception 2nd in a group 3)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+ (exception was 2nd in 1M 6F group 3)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a hurdles race earlier that year
5 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
2 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time

Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 004100 (1-1-6)
John Smith’s Silver Cup winner (Tactician): 3 (0-1-1)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Fox Hunt): 30 (0-1-2)
Braveheart handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 939 (0-1-3)
Bet On Wimbledon totesport.com H’cap winner (Sivino): 75 (0-0-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Halicarnassus): 805009 (0-0-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time

Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-2-7) has won the race three times since 1999 and 5 of his 7 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen both his representatives make the places, while James Fanshawe (0-2-4) and Michael Stoute (0-2-9) have also saddled a couple of placed- finishers.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-16) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th last year.

Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 9-6-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-11-64
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were drawn in the highest 7 stalls

Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear

Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)
• Officially rated 92 to 102
• Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
• Won a race this season
• Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
• Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
• Run in 8 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
• Won at class 3 level or higher
• Won over 1M 4F+
• Drawn in highest 7 stalls
• Hold up horses favoured
• Trained by Luca Cumani, Philip Hobbs or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, run at Ascot on the 23rd July, is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, it was historically a good acid test for Derby winners and it is good to see this year’s Derby winner, Workforce, entered to run. He will be the first Derby winner since 2003 to run in this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-2-14
4yo: 8-6-41
5yo: 0-7-25
6yo+: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby earlier that season.

Gender
All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was Time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions won the Hardwicke by over 3 lengths on previous start)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
That season
Prince Of Wales’ Stakes winner (Rewilding): 25711 (2-1-5)
Highest placed Derby finisher: 1355 (1-1-4)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 81 (1-0-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding): 2203 (0-2-4)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 76953 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Arc winner (Workforce): 31 (1-1-2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 27 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 5-1-17
British-trained runners: 4-14-62
French-trained runners: 1-2-8
Other: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-12) & Michael Stoute (3-4-14) have both trained the winner 3 times in past 10 years, and the last 4 winners were trained by one or the other.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-4-14) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 5 of his 14 runners make the frame.

Price
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.48 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
• Run in last 50 days
• Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke last time out)
• Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at trip)
• Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
• Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time
• Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2010
• Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
• Priced shorter than 7/1

The Northumberland Plate takes place at Newcastle on Satuday 25th June. Trends for the past 10 years seem to point to lower weights with proven stamina that like to race prominently:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-65
5yo: 0-5-44
6yo: 4-7-39
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-112
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-75
Older horses have held the edge recent with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 7.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-126
9 of 10 winners (last carried 8-11 or less
Horses carrying a penalty: 82840300805 (0-3-11)
Top weight: 00000000030 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-14-70
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-98
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-19
The last 8 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 6F+
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3 or 4
7 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races
Previous season’s winner (Overturn): 708 (0-0-3)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 4 (0-1-1)
Tentofollow Handicap winner (Montaff): 30 (0-1-2)
Ascot Stakes winner (Swingkeel): 288 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Overturn): 98300 (0-1-5)
Eddie Stobart Stakes winner (Yorgunnabelucky): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out, finishing

Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) and Paul Cole (1-2-6) have both gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-7), Donald McCain (1-0-1), Mick Channon (1-0-1) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race since 2001.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) and Richard Fahey (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple places in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-6) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-6-47
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-54
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 1-7-60
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-8-36
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-5-37

Racing Style
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7
The last 2 winners both made all to win, the 3 winners who were held up did so on soft ground.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6+
• Carrying 8-11 or less
• Officially rated 85 to 93
• Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
• Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
• Ran in last 55 days
• Ran 2 to 6 times in 2011
• Won over 1M 6F+
• Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
• Trained by George Moore, Paul Cole or Alan Swinbank
• Tends to race prominently
• Priced 12/1 or higher

The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 4th June and this year’s race has a lot to live up to after Sea The Stars did the Guineas-Derby double in 2009 and Workforce won by amazing fashion last year. Unfortunately it looks as if Frankel will not be taking part but Carton House’s Dante win means he looks the one they all have to beat.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-12-78
British bred: 3-6-48
American bred: 1-2-17
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred: 0-0-2
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
5 of 10 winners by a sire that’d won or placed in English or Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who’d finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 114+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn’t run in a group 1 as 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce last year, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners made their debut in a 7F or 8F race
9 of 10 winners made their debut at a group 1 track
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 38 times before winning the race. In those 38 starts they had finished outside the first 2 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as a 2yo.

2yo Form
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 7106116 (3-0-7)
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 311 (2-1-3)
National Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2031 (1-2-4)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 30201 (1-2-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 20P1 (1-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Zoffany): 14 (1-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Recital): 092 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11

3yo Form
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2000 Guineas: 24701104 (2-1-8)
Dante Stakes winner (Carlton House): 739110120 (3-2-9)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Recital): 113430325 (2-4-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Glen’s Diamond): 15080 (1-0-5)
Cocket Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): F703 (0-1-4)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Dordogne): 6804093670 (0-1-10)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Ocean War): 80 (0-0-2)
Gallinule Stakes winner (Alexander Pope): 04 (0-0-2)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Genius Beast): 00400 (0-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 56605450 (0-0-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown Dtud Derby Trial, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-10-94
Irish-trained runners: 4-9-47
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Michael Stoute (3-2-10) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years and his first strings’ record reads 211021 (3-2-6).
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since then has managed just 6 places from 35 runners.
John Oxx (1-1-2), Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-9) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 4.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
• Born before 07/04/2008
• Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
• Run 2 to 5 times before (and once or twice this year)
• Never finished worse than 2nd (excluding racecourse debuts)
• Had run in the past 35 days
• Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
• Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
• Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas as 3yo
• Won a group race
• Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
• Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
• Trained by M Stoute, J Oxx or A O’Brien
• Priced 6/1 or below

St Stephens Day or Boxing Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star have taken it. This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid and win the race for the fifth time. The fact Kauto Star has won the race last 4 renewals does skew the trends slightly.

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-3-13
7yo: 4-7-21
8yo: 1-4-28
9yo: 2-2-16
10yo: 0-3-11
11+: 1-0-10
6 and 7 year olds have the best record in the race with a combined record of 6-10-34. Compare that to horses aged 8 or older (4-10-65).

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (last 9 had won more than 1)

Other Races
Previous year’s winner (Kauto Star): 54401111 (4-0-8)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Imperial Commander): 1111 (4-0-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): P1171 (3-0-5)
John Durkan Chase winner: 151 (2-0-3)
Peterborough Chase winner: 614334P (1-2-7)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1 (1-0-2)
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (Burton Port): 432 (0-2-3)
Aintree Bowl winner (What A Friend): 5443P3P2 (0-2-8)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Planet Of Sound): 31 (1-1-2)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Punchestowns): 2 (0-1-2)
Melling Chase winner (Albertas Run): 653 (0-1-3)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Long Run): 3P6 (0-1-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Nacarat): 526P (0-1-4)
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): PP5 (0-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s race, finishing 221111
5 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U1
3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-1-12) has won the race with Kauto Star for past 4 years.
Willie Mullins (1-1-3) saddled Florida Pearl to run in the race 3 times, gaining a win, a second and a fourth.
Nicky Henderson (0-4-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-4) have each had multiple placed runners in the race in the past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (3-1-7) have produced 3 winners and a second from 7 runners.

Price
7 of 10 favourites have won (including the last 6) and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.
There has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

Conclusion:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Won over 3M+
- Won a Grade 1 chase (more than one ideally)
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s renewal
- Finished in the first 3 in the Betfair Chase
- Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
- Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland