1.30 Jewson Novice Handicap Chase
Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh won this race last year with Chapoturgeon, a 5yo who had run just 3 times over fences. Nicholls and Walsh team up with Rivaliste who has a very similar profile. He won his only start over fences in France and then won a 2M 3F Newbury handicap chase off 124 on good to soft on his first start for Nicholls.
He was raised 7lbs for that win and was runner-up in a 2M 4½F Sandown handicap chase on soft ground last time out off a mark of 131. He asserted 2 out and stretched 3 lengths clear and stayed on well up the home straight but got a bit tired in the softer ground and was touched off by a nose right on the line. The winner, Doctor Pat, won off a 5lb higher mark next time out and the 3rd, Latanier, won a novice chase on his next outing. He has gone up a further 6lbs for his last run but with conditions likely to suit he has to have serious claims in this race.
Nicanor won the 2006 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on good ground and followed that up by winning the 2M 4F Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, also on good ground. He was off the track for the best part of 3 years before he returned to the track last season when 4th in a 2M 2F Gowran Park beginners chase on heavy.
He has run 5 times over fences this season and finally got an overdue win last time out, however he had run really well in defeat on his previous two starts. He was second in a 2M 1F Fairyhouse beginners chase in January on heavy, beaten a short head by subsequent Irish Arkle winner An Caithaoir Mor. He was then runner-up to Kempes in another Fairyhouse beginners chase over 2 miles. He travelled well through the race but a tendency to jump left did not help him and he made a bad error at the last, which cost him his chance though he may not have beaten Kempes anyway. Kempes ran out an impressive 4 length winner of a grade 2 next time out.
Nicanor seemed to appreciate the step up to 2M 4F last time when winning a Navan beginners chase on heavy ground. He travelled well to 2 out and forged clear up the straight before tiring late on to win by 1½ lengths from Deal Done, who ran out an 11 length winner next time out. The better ground today will suited and he does seem to be a better horse when racing left-handed.

Conclusion:
Rivaliste is a deserved favourite and carrying just 10-13 he has to have a big chance but preference is for Nicanor whose form looks very solid. We know he likes the Cheltenham track and the better ground should bring out further improvement in him which could be enough to see him win off his mark of 140. Nicanor each way at 14/1 Ladbrokes/Paddy Power

2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Once again Nicholls and Walsh have the favourite in this race and in Alfie Sherrin they have a horse who will be very hard to beat. His record on good to soft or faster is 3 wins from 3 runs. He has won a 2M 7F Fontwell novice hurdle on his first run over jumps and then was a little disappointing when only managing 3rd of 18 in a listed Chepstow handicap hurdle in October on soft over 2M 4F. However the longer trip and better ground last time saw him right back to his best when winning a 3M ½F Newbury class 2 handicap hurdle on good to soft off a mark of 132. The form of the race has worked out superbly with the 5th, 6th and 8th all winning next time out and the 4th and 7th both finishing 2nd next time. Alfie Sherrin has gone up 12lbs for the win but with conditions looking ideal he looks the one to beat.
This is a 24-runner handicap hurdle and the favourite has won it just once in the past 10 renewals, in the past 6 years only 2 of the 24 runners priced below 10/1 have made the places. So while Alfie Sherrin might be far too good, taking 7/2 about him does not appeal. An outsider that could go well at a big price is Cross Kennon.
Cross Kennon is one of the most improved hurdlers in training. He won a Lingfield class 5 handicap hurdle in March 2009 off 72 and his most recent win was in a 3M Cheptsotw class 3 handicap hurdle off 120 (48lbs higher). His record in handicap hurdles is 5 wins and a second from 6 runs and he has won both his starts over hurdles on good ground.
The form of his 6 length win of a 3M Chepstow handicap hurdle last time out has worked out well. The 3rd, Callerlilly, has won since off a 5lb higher mark since, the 4th, Money Order, won next time out off 1lb lower and is now rated 10lbs higher and the 5th, Mister Quasimodo, has also won since over fences. Cross Kennon is up 12lbs for his last win but we know trip and ground will suit and his last wins meant he made it into this race off a low racing weight of 10-3. He has not run for 103 days but he has won first time out for past two seasons and is proven when fresh.

Conclusion:
Alfie Sherrin is prohibitively priced at 7/2 for such an open race and while he will be tough to beat I prefer to have a small each way on Cross Kennon at 25/1 Skybet, who are paying first 5 each way, which is a must for this race.

2.40 Ryanair Chase
All 5 winners of this race had previously won over the Cheltenham fences. That narrows the field down quite a bit. Form in the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cups is highly significant.
Tranquil Sea was 6th in last season’s Jewson and he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in November, beating Poquelin in 4½ lengths getting 2lbs. He had a very nice prep for this when winning a 2M 1F grade 2 chase at Leopardstown last time out. He ahs won a grade 1 hurdle on good ground and looks sure to run a big race.
After finishing a staying on second in the Paddy Power, Poquelin won the Boylesports Gold Cup (over today’s course and distance) in terrific fashion by 7 lengths on soft ground. His previous 5 wins had all come on good or good to firm ground, which made the win all the more impressive. His last 3 wins have come here at Cheltenham over fences and conditions will be ideal. He is another with very strong claims.
Voy Por Ustedes’ record at the Cheltenham Festival is 2 wins (in the 06 Arkle and 07 Champion Chase) and 2 seconds (in the 08 Champion Chase and 09 Ryanair) from 4 runs. His record over fences on good ground reads 11313 (3-2-5), which improves to 111 (3-0-3) at left-handed tracks. He has disappointed on his last two outings but back here on suitable ground he could run well at a decent price.
Albertas Run has won 2 of his 3 starts over fences at Cheltenham. His record in chases on good or firmer ground reads 12113231 (4-4-8). The only horses who have been good enough to beat over fences on good ground without getting weight from him have been Madison Du Berlais, Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star.
Planet Of Sound has yet to win at Cheltenham and while Hobbs are horses are in good form Planet Of Sound’s jumping has let him down on his last 2 starts.
Barber Shop has solid form and could be capable of making the places while Deep Purple will be suited by the ground but will have to put a bad run in the King George behind him. Schindlers Hunt was third in the race last year but doesn’t win often and might prefer softer. Petit Robin swerved the Champion Chase to run in this but he is unproven over this trip and is another who’d probably prefer some give in the ground.

Conclusion:
There shouldn’t be much between Poquelin and Tranquil Sea in this and at the prices Tranquil Sea at 5/1 looks a safe enough each way bet.

3.20 World Hurdle
With Dunguib and Master Minded both getting turned over there might be a few bookmakers looking to take on Big Bucks. He is one of the best staying hurdlers of the past 25 years and he will be very hard to beat. Since joining the Nicholls stable he has won 6 out of 6 over hurdles and he is 3 from 3 over hurdles at Cheltenham, including winning this last year. He has won both the Long Walk and Long Distance this season and has won on good ground but would probably prefer a bit of ease.
Tidal Bay’s record over hurdles reads 1112211 (5-2-7). He was runner-up in the 2007 Neptune Novice Hurdle and won the 2008 Arkle. Despite some notable successes in chases he never really looked comfortable jumping fences. The return to hurdles last time saw him run out a 5 length winner of the Cleeve Hurdle over this course and distance. On that run he has the beating of Time For Rupert, Katchit, Fair Along and Lie Forrit. He acts on a sound surface and has to have serious claims.
Karabak was runner-up in last season’s Neptune Novice Hurdle, beaten under 2 lengths by Mikael D’Haguenet. He has put in two very good efforts this season. Firstly when 2nd to Zaynar in the Ascot Hurdle, he was beaten 6 lengths but he finished 17 lengths clear of the rest. He was runner-up to Big Bucks in the Long Walk Hurdle last time, finishing 3 lengths ahead of Diamond Harry in third with the front 3 pulling 19 lengths clear. It is hard to see him reversing the form with Big Bucks but he could prove best of the rest.
Sentry Duty has disappointed on his last 2 runs at the Festival but he won a 2M 5F hurdle here last time out. He is having his first try over 3 miles and while he acts on good ground he may lack for stamina in this race which is sure to be run at a good pace.
War Of Attrition won the Boyne Hurdle last time out and 4 of the 6 Boyne Hurdle winners to contest this in the past 10 runnings have been placed but it would be a major shock if he was good enough to win this on good ground.
Powerstation has been placed on 5 of his 6 runs at the track, including placing in races in 3 of the last 4 seasons. He was 3rd in the World Hurdle last season and while his success rate over hurdles (4 from 32) is poor he may be able to make the places at long odds.

Conclusion:
Big Bucks will be very hard to beat but at odds on I don’t feel he’s worth backing. In the “without Big Bucks” market Karabak at 4/1 looks a very safe each way bet with Ladbrokes (at 1/4 odds 1,2,3).

4.00 Byrne Group Plate
Watch My Back comes from the Ferdy Murphy yard who tasted success on the second day of the Festival. He fits the trends for this race well and looks to improving and may be able to overcome the weight rise for his last win.
He was 5th in a 2M 4F handicap chase here at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut, beaten 6 lengths by Poquelin, who subsequently won the Boylesports Gold Cup off 12lbs higher. The runner-up Gaelic Flight was placed on his next two starts off higher marks. The 3rd, Hold Em was placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off 3lbs higher since and the 7th, Private Be, finished 2nd on his next 3 starts, including two grade 3 handicap chases here at Cheltenham.
Watch My Back landed a 2M 3F Doncaster class 2 handicap chase off a mark of 132 last time out, winning by 11 lengths from Battlecry who finished 2nd again next time out off the same mark.
Venetia Williams (2-5-11) has a good record in this race and her runner Atouchbetweenacara has attracted support, but he has shown little this season to suggest he can win this.
Nicky Henderson (2-4-17) has two in the race, Aigle D’Or and My Petra, who Barry Geraghty rides. My Petra finished runner-up in the 2008 Grand Annual off a mark of 131 but his last 3 efforts over fences (FPP) have left something to be desired but he looked like he might be coming back to his best when runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle last time out.

Conclusion:
Ferdy Murphy saddled Poker De Sivola to win at 14/1 and Kalahari King to finish 3rd in the Champion Chase yesterday and his runner Watch My Back has gained all 5 of his wins on good or firmer so will be suited by conditions in this and comes into the race in top form. At 8/1 Paddy Power (who are paying first 5 each way) Watch My Back is worth an each way bet

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The Kim Muir is a 3M 1½F handicap chase for amateur riders only and has been one of the trickiest races of the Festival to figure out in recent years. 6 of the last 7 winners have gone off 12/1 or bigger with winners at 40/1 and two at 33/1.
The trends point to a French-bred who has won over 3 miles and has run in no more than 8 handicap chases, and won no more than one of those.
Ferdy Murphy is having a good Festival and does win plenty of handicap chases, he trained the winner of this race in 2006 and he has booked Nina Carberry to ride Galant Nuit in this and he fits many of the right trends.
He’s a French-bred who has run just 7 times over fences. He won the 3M 4F Servo Trophy here last time out in November on soft ground off a mark of 126. He has gone up 7lbs for that win but he is still improving and if he handles this livelier ground he should make the frame.
A good jockey is vital in this race and those jockeys who have won it in recent years include Jamie Codd (I’moncloudnine) and Richard Harding (Ballabriggs) while Derek O’Connor (Boychuk) and Tom Greenall (Heathcliff) have both ridden multiple placed finishers.
One other runner which deserves a mention is Mr Robert from the Evan Williams stable which provided the winner of this race in 2008. All 5 of his wins have come on good or firmer ground and is best suited by a left-handed stiff track like Cheltenham. At 50/1 he could run well at rewarding odds.

Conclusion:
This looks a very tricky race to sort out and while Galant Nuit has the right profile his odds of 9/1 don’t scream value. In such a tricky race no bet is advised.